Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa preview and prediction
The match
The Ekstraklasa sees Lech Poznan take on Raków Częstochowa on Sunday 6 September, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Stadion Poznan. Lech Poznan are 1st with 32 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Raków Częstochowa sit 16th on 12 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lech Poznan's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Jagiellonia 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Raków Częstochowa's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Gornik Zabrze 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Lech Poznan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Lech Poznan 4–3 Raków Częstochowa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.3 for Lech Poznan and 1.0 for Raków Częstochowa. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lech Poznan 68%, draw 19%, Raków Częstochowa 13%.
Safer route: Lech Poznan or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lech Poznan to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.47, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lech Poznan 2–0 Raków Częstochowa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lech Poznan68%fair 1.47 · @1.62
Draw19%fair 5.36 · @4.00
Raków Częstochowa13%fair 7.50 · @4.50
3.30Expected goals
2.35Lech Poznan xG
0.95Raków Częstochowa xG
60%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–18%
3–08%
3–18%
From our goals model: Lech Poznan 2.3 – 1.0 Raków Częstochowa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our pick is Lech Poznan to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
On our numbers Lech Poznan have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Raków Częstochowa 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznan 2–0 Raków Częstochowa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Poznan.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
