Value bet: Pogon Szczecin to win @ 2.66 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPogon Szczecin to win ✗41% · @2.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.99
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin preview and prediction
The match
Zaglebie Lubin host Pogon Szczecin in the Ekstraklasa on Saturday 29 August, with kick-off at 19:15 (WAT) at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. Zaglebie Lubin are 6th with 23 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Pogon Szczecin sit 4th on 24 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Zaglebie Lubin's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Radomiak Radom 0–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pogon Szczecin's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Wisla Krakow 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Zaglebie Lubin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 July 2026, finished Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Pogon Szczecin.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.4 for Pogon Szczecin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Pogon Szczecin to win at 2.66 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Pogon Szczecin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zaglebie Lubin36%fair 2.81 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
Pogon Szczecin41%fair 2.41 · @2.66
2.62Expected goals
1.25Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.37Pogon Szczecin xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Zaglebie Lubin 1.2 – 1.4 Pogon Szczecin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
On our numbers Zaglebie Lubin have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pogon Szczecin 41%.
How many goals will there be in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our predicted score is Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Pogon Szczecin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
