Value bet: Lech Poznan to win @ 1.90 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLech Poznan to win ✓65% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 6.06
Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan preview and prediction
The match
Wieczysta Kraków host Lech Poznan in the Ekstraklasa on Saturday 1 August, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT) at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Wieczysta Kraków are 18th with 8 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Lech Poznan sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Wieczysta Kraków's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Radomiak Radom 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Lech Poznan's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Aarhus 0–3 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Lech Poznan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.7 for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.6 for Lech Poznan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Wieczysta Kraków 21%, draw 14%, Lech Poznan 65%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Lech Poznan to win at 1.90 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.39, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Wieczysta Kraków 0–1 Lech Poznan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Wieczysta Kraków21%fair 4.73 · @3.55
Draw14%fair 7.00 · @3.80
Lech Poznan65%fair 1.55 · @1.90
2.26Expected goals
0.68Wieczysta Kraków xG
1.58Lech Poznan xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–213%
1–111%
0–010%
1–29%
1–07%
From our goals model: Wieczysta Kraków 0.7 – 1.6 Lech Poznan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lech Poznan to win✓
65%
1.55
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
2.25 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.50 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lech Poznan / FT Lech Poznan✓
36%
2.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
6.06
–
Form
Wieczysta Kraków – last 6
LLWDLL
24 Jul
@ Radomiak Radom
1–2
L
18 Jul
vs Maccabi Netanya
0–1
L
10 Jul
vs Ruch Chorzów
2–0
W
5 Jul
vs Slavia Praha
2–2
D
2 Jul
vs Artis
1–2
L
28 Jun
vs Dynamo Kyiv
2–4
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lech Poznan – last 6
LDWWWW
29 Jul
vs Aarhus
0–3
L
25 Jul
vs Cracovia Krakow
0–0
D
21 Jul
@ Aarhus
4–1
W
16 Jul
vs Gornik Zabrze
3–1
W
11 Jul
vs Bohemians 1905
4–0
W
4 Jul
vs Podbrezová
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wieczysta Kraków and Lech Poznan.
What is the prediction for Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan?
On our numbers Wieczysta Kraków have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Lech Poznan 65%.
How many goals will there be in Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan?
Our predicted score is Wieczysta Kraków 0–1 Lech Poznan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Lech Poznan (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
