The Suomen Cup sees HJK Helsinki take on Ilves on Wednesday 1 July, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Bolt Arena.
Form guide
HJK Helsinki's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to KuPS 0–4 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game.
Ilves's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with SJK 2–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 6.0 goals: 3.7 for HJK Helsinki and 2.3 for Ilves. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score in 71% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: HJK Helsinki 62%, draw 19%, Ilves 20%.
Both teams to score: yes (71%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 71% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.41, so there is value in it. Predicted score: HJK Helsinki 3–2 Ilves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
HJK Helsinki62%fair 1.62 · @1.57
Draw19%fair 5.40 · @3.90
Ilves20%fair 5.06 · @4.20
6.00Expected goals
3.69HJK Helsinki xG
2.31Ilves xG
71%Both score
94%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–26%
4–25%
3–15%
2–25%
4–14%
3–34%
From our goals model: HJK Helsinki 3.7 – 2.3 Ilves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HJK Helsinki to win✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
71%
1.41
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
HJK Helsinki ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HJK Helsinki / FT HJK Helsinki✓
44%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–2✗
6%
18.05
–
Form
HJK Helsinki – last 6
LWDWWW
27 Jun
vs KuPS
0–4
L
23 Jun
@ Mariehamn
4–0
W
17 Jun
vs Inter Turku
3–3
D
13 Jun
@ FF Jaro
5–2
W
9 Jun
@ Honka
7–1
W
30 May
vs Mariehamn
1–0
W
3.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Ilves – last 6
DLWWWL
27 Jun
vs SJK
2–2
D
23 Jun
@ KuPS
3–4
L
17 Jun
vs FF Jaro
5–0
W
13 Jun
vs Turku PS
1–0
W
10 Jun
vs Lahti
5–2
W
30 May
@ Lahti
0–5
L
2.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between HJK Helsinki and Ilves.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
On our numbers HJK Helsinki have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ilves 20%.
How many goals will there be in HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
We expect about 6.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our predicted score is HJK Helsinki 3–2 Ilves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 6.0 goals in total.
When is HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
HJK Helsinki vs Ilves (Suomen Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 1 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Bolt Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Suomen Cup · Finland · Bolt Arena
