Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
1
Value bet: Marseille to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarseille to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.40
Marseille vs Toulouse preview and prediction
The match
Marseille host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at Orange Vélodrome. Marseille are 4th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Toulouse sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Marseille's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Le Havre 4–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Toulouse's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Estac Troyes 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.1 for Marseille and 1.3 for Toulouse. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Value angle: Marseille to win at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Marseille 2–1 Toulouse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marseille58%fair 1.73 · @1.85
Draw18%fair 5.60 · @3.80
Toulouse24%fair 4.13 · @3.50
3.38Expected goals
2.10Marseille xG
1.28Toulouse xG
64%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–07%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Marseille 2.1 – 1.3 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
58%
1.73
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Marseille ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✓
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.40
–
Form
Marseille – last 6
WLWLWL
25 Oct
vs Le Havre
4–3
W
22 Oct
@ Sturm Graz
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Angers
5–2
W
15 Oct
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Estac Troyes
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 6
DWDWDL
24 Oct
vs Estac Troyes
0–0
D
16 Oct
@ Le Mans
3–0
W
10 Oct
@ Monaco
2–2
D
19 Sep
vs Le Havre
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Lorient
2–2
D
3 Sep
vs Lille
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Toulouse.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Marseille have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Toulouse 24%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Toulouse?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Marseille 2–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Toulouse?
Marseille vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
