Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToulouse to win ✓42% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.60
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.80
Le Mans vs Toulouse preview and prediction
The match
Toulouse travel to MMArena in the Ligue 1 on Friday 16 October (19:45 WAT) to face Le Mans. Le Mans are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Toulouse sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Le Mans's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Paris Saint Germain 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Toulouse's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with Monaco 2–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.7 for Le Mans and 1.8 for Toulouse. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Le Mans 35%, draw 24%, Toulouse 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Le Mans 1–1 Toulouse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Le Mans35%fair 2.89 · @2.90
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.30
Toulouse42%fair 2.40 · @2.25
3.50Expected goals
1.66Le Mans xG
1.84Toulouse xG
64%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–35%
From our goals model: Le Mans 1.7 – 1.8 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toulouse to win✓
42%
2.40
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.55
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
36%
2.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toulouse / FT Toulouse✗
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.80
–
Form
Le Mans – last 6
LWDDLD
10 Oct
@ Paris Saint Germain
1–3
L
19 Sep
vs Lorient
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Lens
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Nice
1–1
D
30 Aug
@ Rennes
2–3
L
22 Aug
vs Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 6
DWDLDL
10 Oct
@ Monaco
2–2
D
19 Sep
vs Le Havre
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Lorient
2–2
D
3 Sep
vs Lille
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Lyon
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Le Mans and Toulouse.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Le Mans have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Toulouse 42%.
How many goals will there be in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Le Mans 1–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Le Mans vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at MMArena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
