Value bet: Lille to win @ 2.12 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLille to win ✓51% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓10% · fair 9.54
Toulouse vs Lille preview and prediction
The match
Lille travel to Stadium de Toulouse in the Ligue 1 on Thursday 3 September (19:45 WAT) to face Toulouse. Toulouse are 12th with 13 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Lille sit 2nd on 21 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Toulouse's last 5: DLLWD Most recently they drew with Stade Brestois 29 2–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Lille's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Paris Saint Germain 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Lille arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.1 for Toulouse and 1.7 for Lille. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toulouse 27%, draw 22%, Lille 51%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Lille to win at 2.12 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Toulouse 1–1 Lille. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toulouse27%fair 3.75 · @3.35
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.30
Lille51%fair 1.94 · @2.12
2.76Expected goals
1.11Toulouse xG
1.65Lille xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Toulouse 1.1 – 1.7 Lille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lille to win✓
51%
1.94
2.12 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lille / FT Lille✗
30%
3.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
10%
9.54
–
Form
Toulouse – last 6
DLLWDL
29 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Lyon
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
1–2
L
31 Jul
vs Real Sociedad
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Rodez
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Lens
1–4
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lille – last 6
DWDDWW
28 Aug
vs Paris Saint Germain
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Angers
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Everton
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Hamburger SV
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ OH Leuven
6–3
W
18 Jul
vs RAAL La Louvière
3–0
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toulouse and Lille.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Toulouse vs Lille?
On our numbers Toulouse have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lille 51%.
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Lille?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our predicted score is Toulouse 1–1 Lille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse vs Lille (Ligue 1) kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadium de Toulouse.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
