Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Marseille to win @ 1.67 – our chance 67% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarseille to win ✓67% · @1.67
Double chanceMarseille or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Marseille vs Strasbourg preview and prediction
The match
Marseille host Strasbourg in the Ligue 1 on Friday 21 August, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at CEPAC Vélodrome. Marseille are 4th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Strasbourg sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Marseille's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Atletico Madrid 1–2 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Strasbourg's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Newcastle 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 3.5 conceded.
Marseille arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for Marseille and 0.9 for Strasbourg. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Marseille to win at 1.67 – 67% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Marseille or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Marseille 2–0 Strasbourg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marseille67%fair 1.50 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @4.20
Strasbourg13%fair 7.61 · @4.35
3.14Expected goals
2.23Marseille xG
0.91Strasbourg xG
59%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Marseille 2.2 – 0.9 Strasbourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
67%
1.50
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Marseille or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.57
Half-time result
Marseille ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✗
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.22
–
Form
Marseille – last 6
LWWWWL
14 Aug
vs Atletico Madrid
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs Athletic Club
3–1
W
30 Jul
vs Nimes
2–1
W
17 May
vs Rennes
3–1
W
10 Apr
vs Metz
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Monaco
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Strasbourg – last 6
DLLLLL
16 Aug
@ Newcastle
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ SC Freiburg
0–2
L
4 Aug
vs SV Elversberg
2–5
L
1 Aug
@ Brighton
3–4
L
25 Jul
vs Blackburn
0–2
L
20 Jul
@ Sporting CP
0–7
L
1.0Scored / game
3.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Strasbourg.
What is the prediction for Marseille vs Strasbourg?
Our pick is Marseille or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Marseille vs Strasbourg?
On our numbers Marseille have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Strasbourg 13%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Strasbourg?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Strasbourg?
Our predicted score is Marseille 2–0 Strasbourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Strasbourg?
Marseille vs Strasbourg (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at CEPAC Vélodrome.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
