Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: PAU to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMetz to win ✗41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Metz vs PAU preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 2 sees Metz take on PAU on Friday 30 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Metz are 7th with 17 points from 12 games (in the top half), while PAU sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Metz's last 5: DWLDL Most recently they drew with Dunkerque 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
PAU's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Grenoble 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
PAU arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Metz and 1.3 for PAU. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Metz 41%, draw 24%, PAU 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.65.
Value angle: PAU to win at 3.20 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Metz 1–1 PAU. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Metz41%fair 2.44 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.30
PAU35%fair 2.83 · @3.20
2.65Expected goals
1.39Metz xG
1.26PAU xG
61%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Metz 1.4 – 1.3 PAU expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Metz to win✗
41%
2.44
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Metz / FT Metz✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.21
–
Form
Metz – last 6
DWLDLW
23 Oct
@ Dunkerque
1–1
D
17 Oct
vs Sochaux
3–2
W
12 Oct
@ Dijon
2–4
L
19 Sep
vs Saint Etienne
2–2
D
14 Sep
@ RED Star FC 93
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Rodez
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
PAU – last 6
WWWWLD
23 Oct
vs Grenoble
2–1
W
16 Oct
@ Guingamp
2–1
W
9 Oct
vs Laval
3–2
W
18 Sep
vs Dunkerque
2–0
W
11 Sep
@ Montpellier
0–1
L
4 Sep
vs Sochaux
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metz and PAU.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Metz vs PAU?
On our numbers Metz have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and PAU 35%.
How many goals will there be in Metz vs PAU?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metz vs PAU?
Our predicted score is Metz 1–1 PAU, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Metz vs PAU?
Metz vs PAU (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
