Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Montpellier to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMontpellier to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceMontpellier or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓24% · fair 4.22
Montpellier vs PAU preview and prediction
The match
Montpellier host PAU in the Ligue 2 on Friday 11 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Stade de la Mosson. Montpellier are 3rd with 24 points from 12 games (in the top four), while PAU sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Montpellier's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Saint Etienne 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
PAU's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Sochaux 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Montpellier arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished PAU 0–0 Montpellier.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.3 for Montpellier and 0.4 for PAU. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 76% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Montpellier 61%, draw 26%, PAU 13%.
Safer route: Montpellier or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (58%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Montpellier to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Montpellier or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Montpellier 1–0 PAU. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Montpellier61%fair 1.64 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.30
PAU13%fair 7.68 · @4.00
1.70Expected goals
1.30Montpellier xG
0.40PAU xG
42%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
0–018%
2–015%
1–110%
0–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Montpellier 1.3 – 0.4 PAU expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Montpellier or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Montpellier vs PAU?
On our numbers Montpellier have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and PAU 13%.
How many goals will there be in Montpellier vs PAU?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs PAU?
Our predicted score is Montpellier 1–0 PAU, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Montpellier vs PAU?
Montpellier vs PAU (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Mosson.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
