Eredivisie · Netherlands · AFAS Stadion
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 2.4 – 1.2 Groningen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 15% for Groningen.
AZ Alkmaar have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 per game. Groningen have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 2.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.6 goals (2.4 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.2 for Groningen). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, AZ Alkmaar have won 0, Groningen have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.46.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AZ Alkmaar to win ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.48 |
| Double chance | AZ Alkmaar or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.73 |
| Half-time result | AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar ✗ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.63 | – |
Form
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
| 5 Nov | vs Juventus | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Oct | @ Ajax | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Twente | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Oct | @ Ararat-Armenia | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ Cambuur | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2–1 | W |
Groningen – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Oct | vs Emmen | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ NEC Nijmegen | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Ajax | 2–5 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Excelsior | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 2026 | Groningen v AZ Alkmaar | 3–0 |
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 |
More Eredivisie predictions
League hub →Heerenveen5
Feyenoord3
2Feyenoord to win
66%@1.70
✗
FT
Twente2
Ajax2
O2.5Over 2.5 goals
68%@1.40
✓
FT
Cambuur2
PSV Eindhoven5
O2.5Over 2.5 goals
77%@1.25
✓
FT
Utrecht2
NEC Nijmegen3
O2.5Over 2.5 goals
69%@1.40
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Groningen 15%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.