Eredivisie · Netherlands · De Grolsch Veste

Twente

WWWWL

2–2

Ajax

WWWWW

Twente vs Ajax prediction & analysis

68%

Footrivo pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓

7/10Rating

1.40Odds

Value bet: Twente to win @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultTwente to win ✗58% · @1.83

Double chanceEither team to win ✗82% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.40

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.40

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.69

Win chances

Twente58%fair 1.72 · @1.83

Draw18%fair 5.58 · @4.20

Ajax24%fair 4.18 · @3.75

3.57Expected goals

2.22Twente xG

1.35Ajax xG

66%Both score

68%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–19%

1–18%

3–17%

2–07%

2–26%

1–06%

From our goals model: Twente 2.2 – 1.4 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Twente hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 24% for Ajax.

Twente have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 3.3 and conceding 0.7 per game. Ajax have 15 points from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), averaging 2.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.

We expect around 3.6 goals (2.2 for Twente, 1.4 for Ajax). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%).

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.46. For a bigger price, Twente to win at 1.83 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Twente to win ✗	58%	1.72	1.83 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	82%	1.22	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	66%	1.51	1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	68%	1.46	1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	52%	1.93	1.80
Half-time result	Twente ahead at half-time ✗	44%	2.30	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Twente / FT Twente ✗	37%	2.73	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.69	–

Form

Twente – last 6

WWWWLW

5 Nov	vs Pafos	3–1	W
1 Nov	@ Excelsior	9–0	W
25 Oct	@ AZ Alkmaar	2–0	W
22 Oct	@ Lincoln Red Imps FC	4–1	W
18 Oct	vs Utrecht	1–2	L
15 Oct	vs FC Thun	1–0	W

3.3Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Ajax – last 6

WWWWWL

5 Nov	@ FC Midtjylland	6–1	W
31 Oct	vs AZ Alkmaar	1–0	W
25 Oct	@ Sparta Rotterdam	2–1	W
22 Oct	vs Atalanta	2–0	W
18 Oct	@ Groningen	5–2	W
15 Oct	@ HNK Hajduk Split	1–2	L

2.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Twente and Ajax.

Eredivisie table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	2	2	+25	26
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	+19	25
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	+17	25
4	Twente	12	7	3	2	+18	24
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+8	23
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	0	20
8	GO Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	-3	17
9	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+1	15
10	Cambuur	12	4	3	5	-2	15
11	NEC Nijmegen	12	3	5	4	-1	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-8	12
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12
14	Utrecht	12	3	3	6	-13	12
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	-13	11
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	-29	3

More Eredivisie predictions

League hub →

Heerenveen5

Feyenoord3 151966 2Feyenoord to win 66%@1.70 ✗ FT

Cambuur2

PSV Eindhoven5 171964 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 77%@1.25 ✓ FT

AZ Alkmaar4

Groningen3 632115 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.40 ✓ FT

Utrecht2

NEC Nijmegen3 422136 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.40 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Twente vs Ajax?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Twente vs Ajax?

On our numbers Twente have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Ajax 24%.

How many goals will there be in Twente vs Ajax?

We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.

When is Twente vs Ajax?

Twente vs Ajax (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at De Grolsch Veste.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.