Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultHeerenveen to win ✓65% · @1.65
Double chanceHeerenveen or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Heerenveen vs Excelsior preview and prediction
The match
Excelsior travel to Abe Lenstra Stadion in the Eredivisie on Friday 16 October (19:00 WAT) to face Heerenveen. Heerenveen are 6th with 21 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Excelsior sit 15th on 11 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Heerenveen's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to PSV Eindhoven 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Excelsior's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Groningen 1–5 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for Heerenveen and 1.0 for Excelsior. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Heerenveen to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Heerenveen65%fair 1.53 · @1.65
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @3.90
Excelsior15%fair 6.57 · @4.50
3.25Expected goals
2.25Heerenveen xG
1.00Excelsior xG
61%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Heerenveen 2.2 – 1.0 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heerenveen to win✓
65%
1.53
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Heerenveen or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Heerenveen ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heerenveen / FT Heerenveen✓
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.19
–
Form
Heerenveen – last 6
LWDLDL
9 Oct
@ PSV Eindhoven
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Sparta Rotterdam
4–0
W
13 Sep
vs Telstar
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs AZ Alkmaar
2–3
L
30 Aug
@ Willem II
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs PEC Zwolle
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Excelsior – last 6
LDLDWW
11 Oct
vs Groningen
1–5
L
19 Sep
@ Ajax
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Utrecht
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Willem II
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heerenveen and Excelsior.
What is the prediction for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our pick is Heerenveen to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
On our numbers Heerenveen have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Excelsior 15%.
How many goals will there be in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Heerenveen vs Excelsior (Eredivisie) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
