Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAjax to win ✗65% · @1.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.33
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen preview and prediction
The match
NEC Nijmegen travel to Johan Cruijff Arena in the Eredivisie on Saturday 10 October (20:00 WAT) to face Ajax. Ajax are 3rd with 25 points from 12 games (in the top four), while NEC Nijmegen sit 11th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Ajax's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Excelsior 2–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.7 per game.
NEC Nijmegen's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Ajax arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.6 for Ajax and 1.3 for NEC Nijmegen. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ajax 65%, draw 16%, NEC Nijmegen 19%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Ajax 2–1 NEC Nijmegen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ajax65%fair 1.54 · @1.30
Draw16%fair 6.14 · @5.50
NEC Nijmegen19%fair 5.28 · @7.50
3.93Expected goals
2.58Ajax xG
1.35NEC Nijmegen xG
64%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
1–17%
2–07%
2–26%
3–06%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.6 – 1.3 NEC Nijmegen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✗
65%
1.54
1.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
84%
1.19
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.55
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.33
–
Form
Ajax – last 6
DWWLWW
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
5 Sep
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–3
L
30 Aug
@ Telstar
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs FC Sion
5–3
W
3.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
NEC Nijmegen – last 6
DLLDLW
20 Sep
vs GO Ahead Eagles
1–1
D
17 Sep
@ Juventus
0–5
L
12 Sep
@ Cambuur
0–3
L
8 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Feyenoord
1–3
L
29 Aug
@ PEC Zwolle
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
On our numbers Ajax have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 16% and NEC Nijmegen 19%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 NEC Nijmegen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
