Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.77 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✗74% · @1.16
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓92% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.77
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.15
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II preview and prediction
The match
AZ Alkmaar host Willem II in the Eredivisie on Friday 11 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）. AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 23 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Willem II sit 18th on 3 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
AZ Alkmaar's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Heerenveen 3–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Willem II's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Excelsior 0–3 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
AZ Alkmaar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 3.0 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.1 for Willem II. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AZ Alkmaar 74%, draw 18%, Willem II 8%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.77 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Willem II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AZ Alkmaar74%fair 1.35 · @1.16
Draw18%fair 5.59 · @7.30
Willem II8%fair 12.45 · @14.50
4.06Expected goals
3.00AZ Alkmaar xG
1.06Willem II xG
62%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–18%
2–08%
3–08%
4–16%
4–06%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 3.0 – 1.1 Willem II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✗
74%
1.35
1.16
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.77 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.70
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
54%
1.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.15
–
Form
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
WWWWWW
6 Sep
@ Heerenveen
3–2
W
29 Aug
vs GO Ahead Eagles
5–2
W
22 Aug
@ Fortuna Sittard
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Utrecht
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs ADO Den Haag
2–0
W
2 Aug
@ PSV Eindhoven
4–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Willem II – last 6
LDLLWW
5 Sep
vs Excelsior
0–3
L
30 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–4
L
1 Aug
vs OFI
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs KV Mechelen
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II.
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Willem II 8%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Willem II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II (Eredivisie) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
