Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAjax to win ✓75% · @1.11
Double chanceAjax or draw ✓94% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗9% · fair 11.42
Ajax vs Willem II preview and prediction
The match
Ajax host Willem II in the Eredivisie on Tuesday 15 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Johan Cruijff Arena. Ajax are 3rd with 25 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Willem II sit 18th on 3 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ajax's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Fortuna Sittard 5–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.5 goals a game.
Willem II's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with AZ Alkmaar 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Ajax arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.9 for Ajax and 1.0 for Willem II. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ajax 75%, draw 19%, Willem II 6%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Ajax 2–1 Willem II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ajax75%fair 1.34 · @1.11
Draw19%fair 5.31 · @9.00
Willem II6%fair 15.56 · @17.00
3.90Expected goals
2.94Ajax xG
0.96Willem II xG
58%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–09%
3–09%
2–18%
3–18%
4–06%
4–16%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.9 – 1.0 Willem II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
75%
1.34
1.11
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
94%
1.07
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✓
55%
1.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
9%
11.42
–
Form
Ajax – last 6
WLWWWD
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
5 Sep
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–3
L
30 Aug
@ Telstar
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs FC Sion
5–3
W
20 Aug
@ FC Sion
4–2
W
16 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
3.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Willem II – last 6
DLDLLW
11 Sep
@ AZ Alkmaar
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Excelsior
0–3
L
30 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–4
L
1 Aug
vs OFI
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and Willem II.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Ajax vs Willem II?
On our numbers Ajax have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Willem II 6%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Willem II?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Willem II?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 Willem II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax vs Willem II (Eredivisie) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
