Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · GS Staalwerken StadionHelmond Sport vs NAC Breda prediction & analysis
NAC Breda to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Helmond Sport 1.2 – 2.5 NAC Breda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
NAC Breda travel as clear favourites – 64% to win, against 13% for Helmond Sport.
Helmond Sport have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.0 per game. NAC Breda have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
We expect around 3.7 goals (1.2 for Helmond Sport, 2.5 for NAC Breda). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–3 (8%).
Our pick is NAC Breda to win at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.56.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | NAC Breda to win ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | NAC Breda or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.13 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Half-time result | NAC Breda ahead at half-time ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT NAC Breda / FT NAC Breda ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.80 | – |
Form
Helmond Sport – last 6
| 9 Oct | @ FC OSS | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Oct | vs Heracles | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ MVV | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | @ Den Bosch | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Jong PSV U21 | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs VVV Venlo | 4–2 | W |
NAC Breda – last 6
| 9 Oct | vs MVV | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Vitesse | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Eindhoven | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ De Graafschap | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Jong Utrecht | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Sep | @ Waalwijk | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our pick is NAC Breda to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
On our numbers Helmond Sport have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and NAC Breda 64%.
How many goals will there be in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.