Value bet: Jong AZ to win @ 2.88 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDordrecht to win ✗39% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.62
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ preview and prediction
The match
Jong AZ travel to M-Scores Stadion in the Eerste Divisie on Saturday 5 September (15:30 WAT) to face Dordrecht. Dordrecht are 4th with 0 points from 0 games (in the top four), while Jong AZ sit 19th on 0 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Dordrecht's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to FC Volendam 1–6 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Jong AZ's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Jong Utrecht 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Jong AZ arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.8 for Dordrecht and 1.8 for Jong AZ. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 70% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dordrecht 39%, draw 22%, Jong AZ 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (70%) at 1.40.
Value angle: Jong AZ to win at 2.88 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Dordrecht 1–1 Jong AZ. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dordrecht39%fair 2.54 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.60
Jong AZ38%fair 2.61 · @2.88
3.67Expected goals
1.85Dordrecht xG
1.82Jong AZ xG
70%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–35%
From our goals model: Dordrecht 1.8 – 1.8 Jong AZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dordrecht to win✗
39%
2.54
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
35%
2.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dordrecht / FT Dordrecht✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.62
–
Form
Dordrecht – last 6
LLDWLD
28 Aug
@ FC Volendam
1–6
L
21 Aug
vs Roda
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Waalwijk
2–2
D
7 Aug
vs Jong Ajax
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs RSC Anderlecht II
0–2
L
25 Jul
vs Al Khaleej Saihat
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Jong AZ – last 6
WLLWLW
31 Aug
vs Jong Utrecht
2–1
W
28 Aug
vs MVV
1–2
L
21 Aug
@ Emmen
1–3
L
17 Aug
@ De Graafschap
5–2
W
10 Aug
vs FC Eindhoven
0–1
L
1 Aug
@ Ijsselmeervogels
7–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
On our numbers Dordrecht have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Jong AZ 38%.
How many goals will there be in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our predicted score is Dordrecht 1–1 Jong AZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at M-Scores Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
