Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Cherno More Varna to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCherno More Varna to win ✓66% · @1.67
Double chanceCherno More Varna or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✓12% · fair 8.40
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Septemvri Sofia travel to Ticha Stadium in the First League on Tuesday 27 October (16:00 WAT) to face Cherno More Varna. Cherno More Varna are 9th with 13 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Septemvri Sofia sit 12th on 11 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cherno More Varna's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Septemvri Sofia's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Cherno More Varna arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Cherno More Varna and 0.8 for Septemvri Sofia. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cherno More Varna 66%, draw 20%, Septemvri Sofia 13%.
Safer route: Cherno More Varna or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cherno More Varna to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cherno More Varna 2–0 Septemvri Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cherno More Varna66%fair 1.51 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.50
Septemvri Sofia13%fair 7.57 · @4.50
2.91Expected goals
2.09Cherno More Varna xG
0.82Septemvri Sofia xG
57%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 2.1 – 0.8 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cherno More Varna to win✓
66%
1.51
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Cherno More Varna or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Cherno More Varna ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cherno More Varna / FT Cherno More Varna✓
43%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
12%
8.40
–
Form
Cherno More Varna – last 6
LWLLDD
21 Oct
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–1
L
17 Oct
@ Marek
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Levski Sofia
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Ludogorets
0–5
L
19 Sep
@ Arda Kardzhali
1–1
D
11 Sep
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Septemvri Sofia – last 6
DLLLLD
17 Oct
@ Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1–1
D
11 Oct
vs Dunav Ruse
2–3
L
19 Sep
vs Botev Plovdiv
0–3
L
14 Sep
@ Ludogorets
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Botev Vratsa
2–3
L
28 Aug
@ Slavia Sofia
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our pick is Cherno More Varna to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Septemvri Sofia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 2–0 Septemvri Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia (First League) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Ticha Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
