Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Cherno More Varna or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Cherno More Varna to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCherno More Varna to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceCherno More Varna or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Cherno More Varna host Lokomotiv Sofia in the First League on Friday 11 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Ticha. Cherno More Varna are 9th with 13 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Lokomotiv Sofia sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Cherno More Varna's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Lokomotiv Sofia's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Ludogorets 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Cherno More Varna and 1.1 for Lokomotiv Sofia. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cherno More Varna 61%, draw 21%, Lokomotiv Sofia 19%.
Safer route: Cherno More Varna or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Cherno More Varna to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cherno More Varna or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Cherno More Varna 2–1 Lokomotiv Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cherno More Varna61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.20
Lokomotiv Sofia19%fair 5.36 · @3.40
3.13Expected goals
2.07Cherno More Varna xG
1.06Lokomotiv Sofia xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 2.1 – 1.1 Lokomotiv Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cherno More Varna to win✗
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Cherno More Varna or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.70 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Cherno More Varna ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cherno More Varna / FT Cherno More Varna✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.07
–
Form
Cherno More Varna – last 6
LLWLLL
6 Sep
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ CSKA Sofia
1–3
L
21 Aug
vs Dunav Ruse
3–1
W
14 Aug
@ CSKA 1948
1–4
L
9 Aug
vs Ludogorets
2–3
L
1 Aug
@ Botev Plovdiv
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lokomotiv Sofia – last 6
LDLLDL
6 Sep
vs Ludogorets
1–2
L
31 Aug
@ Dunav Ruse
2–2
D
17 Aug
@ Arda Kardzhali
1–3
L
8 Aug
vs CSKA 1948
1–3
L
31 Jul
@ Slavia Sofia
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Levski Sofia
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our pick is Cherno More Varna or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lokomotiv Sofia 19%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 2–1 Lokomotiv Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia (First League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Ticha.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
