Value bet: Spartak Varna to win @ 2.95 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv Plovdiv to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.54
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Spartak Varna take on Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Monday 3 August, kicking off at 19:15 (WAT) at Stadion Spartak. Spartak Varna are 7th with 16 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Spartak Varna's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Cherno More Varna 3–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Septemvri Sofia 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Spartak Varna.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Spartak Varna and 1.4 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Spartak Varna to win at 2.95 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Spartak Varna 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartak Varna37%fair 2.72 · @2.95
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.25
Lokomotiv Plovdiv39%fair 2.53 · @2.20
2.66Expected goals
1.30Spartak Varna xG
1.36Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Spartak Varna 1.3 – 1.4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
On our numbers Spartak Varna have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 39%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our predicted score is Spartak Varna 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (First League) kicks off on Monday 3 August 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
