Value bet: Botev Plovdiv to win @ 1.77 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBotev Plovdiv to win ✗64% · @1.77
Double chanceBotev Plovdiv or draw ✓88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.34
Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Lokomotiv Sofia travel to Stadion Hristo Botev in the First League on Tuesday 21 July (19:30 WAT) to face Botev Plovdiv. Botev Plovdiv are 5th with 23 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Lokomotiv Sofia sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Botev Plovdiv's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Beroe 4–0 at home. At home they have won 5 and lost 1 of their last 6. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lokomotiv Sofia's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Teuta Durrës 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Botev Plovdiv arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Botev Plovdiv and 0.8 for Lokomotiv Sofia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Botev Plovdiv 64%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Sofia 12%.
Safer route: Botev Plovdiv or draw (88%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Botev Plovdiv to win at 1.77 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Lokomotiv Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Botev Plovdiv64%fair 1.56 · @1.77
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.60
Lokomotiv Sofia12%fair 8.36 · @3.90
2.77Expected goals
2.00Botev Plovdiv xG
0.78Lokomotiv Sofia xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Botev Plovdiv 2.0 – 0.8 Lokomotiv Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Botev Plovdiv to win✗
64%
1.56
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Botev Plovdiv or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Half-time result
Botev Plovdiv ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Botev Plovdiv / FT Botev Plovdiv✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.34
–
Form
Botev Plovdiv – last 6
WWLWWW
12 Jul
vs Beroe
4–0
W
4 Jul
vs Spartak Varna
1–0
W
4 Jul
vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1–2
L
1 Jul
vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
4–0
W
26 Jun
vs Arda Kardzhali
2–1
W
23 Jun
vs Spartak Pleven
4–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lokomotiv Sofia – last 6
DDLWDD
11 Jul
vs Teuta Durrës
0–0
D
4 Jul
vs Dukagjini
3–3
D
22 May
@ Spartak Varna
0–3
L
18 May
vs Slavia Sofia
2–0
W
14 May
vs Beroe
1–1
D
9 May
@ Montana
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botev Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Sofia.
What is the prediction for Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
On our numbers Botev Plovdiv have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lokomotiv Sofia 12%.
How many goals will there be in Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our predicted score is Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Lokomotiv Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia (First League) kicks off on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Hristo Botev.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
