Liga MX · Mexico · Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca
Monterrey
Toluca vs Monterrey prediction & analysis
Toluca to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Toluca 2.4 – 1.0 Monterrey expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Toluca are clear favourites at home with a 68% chance of winning, against 14% for Monterrey.
Toluca have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (0W 5D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.0 per game. Monterrey have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.4 for Toluca, 1.0 for Monterrey). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Toluca have won 1, Monterrey have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Toluca to win at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is better than our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Toluca to win ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Toluca or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.12 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.67 |
| Half-time result | Toluca ahead at half-time ✓ | 50% | 1.98 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Toluca / FT Toluca ✓ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 10.35 | – |
Form
Toluca – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Club America | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ Leon | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Oct | vs Club Tijuana | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Atletico San Luis | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Tigres UANL | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Cruz Azul | 3–3 | D |
Monterrey – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Club Tijuana | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Oct | vs Guadalajara Chivas | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Oct | @ Puebla | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Oct | vs CF Pachuca | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Club America | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Atlante FC | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
| 7 Sep 2026 | Toluca v Monterrey | 2–0 |
More Liga MX predictions
Atlas1
CF Pachuca4
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
80%@1.20
✓
FT
Tigres UANL2
Cruz Azul3
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
80%@1.20
✓
FT
U.N.A.M. - Pumas2
Club America2
GGBoth teams to score
63%@1.53
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey?
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Toluca vs Monterrey?
On our numbers Toluca have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Monterrey 14%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Monterrey?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca vs Monterrey (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.