Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✗46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.02
Leon vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
Toluca travel to Estadio León in the Liga MX on Sunday 25 October (00:00 WAT) to face Leon.
Form guide
Leon's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Tigres UANL 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Toluca's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Club Tijuana 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Leon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 September 2026, finished Toluca 2–0 Leon. Across their last 2 meetings Leon have won 0, Toluca 2, with 0 draws and 3.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.4 for Leon and 1.7 for Toluca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leon 33%, draw 21%, Toluca 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Leon 1–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leon33%fair 3.04 · @3.20
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.25
Toluca46%fair 2.17 · @2.00
3.19Expected goals
1.44Leon xG
1.75Toluca xG
66%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
2–17%
0–17%
2–27%
0–26%
From our goals model: Leon 1.4 – 1.7 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Leon vs Toluca?
On our numbers Leon have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Toluca 46%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Toluca?
Leon vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio León.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
