Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✗64% · @1.95
Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.41
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas preview and prediction
The match
Atlas host Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Jalisco. Atlas are 5th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Guadalajara Chivas sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atlas's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Club Tijuana 3–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Guadalajara Chivas's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Club America 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guadalajara Chivas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Atlas 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for Atlas and 2.1 for Guadalajara Chivas. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Safer route: Guadalajara Chivas or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Guadalajara Chivas to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Guadalajara Chivas or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atlas 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlas16%fair 6.10 · @3.30
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @3.20
Guadalajara Chivas64%fair 1.57 · @1.95
3.00Expected goals
0.93Atlas xG
2.07Guadalajara Chivas xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Atlas 0.9 – 2.1 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Guadalajara Chivas or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Atlas have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Guadalajara Chivas 64%.
How many goals will there be in Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Atlas 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
