Toluca host Santos Laguna in the Liga MX on Monday 21 September, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca are 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Santos Laguna sit 6th on 25 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Puebla 1–0 away. At home they have won 5 and lost 0 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Santos Laguna's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat FC Juarez 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Toluca and 0.6 for Santos Laguna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Toluca 2–1 Santos Laguna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca70%fair 1.42 · @1.18
Draw19%fair 5.35 · @6.00
Santos Laguna11%fair 9.22 · @10.00
2.69Expected goals
2.04Toluca xG
0.65Santos Laguna xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.0 – 0.6 Santos Laguna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
70%
1.42
1.18
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
89%
1.12
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
14%
7.05
–
Form
Toluca – last 6
WWWWWW
16 Sep
@ Puebla
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Atlas
5–2
W
7 Sep
vs Monterrey
2–0
W
3 Sep
vs Leon
2–0
W
31 Aug
vs FC Juarez
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs Austin
2–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Santos Laguna – last 6
WLDLLW
14 Sep
vs FC Juarez
2–1
W
7 Sep
@ Cruz Azul
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Tigres UANL
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Puebla
2–3
L
17 Aug
vs Guadalajara Chivas
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Philadelphia Union
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Santos Laguna.
What is the prediction for Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
On our numbers Toluca have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Santos Laguna 11%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 Santos Laguna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
Toluca vs Santos Laguna (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 21 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
