Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓63% · @1.44
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓87% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.69
Toluca vs Atlas preview and prediction
The match
Toluca host Atlas in the Liga MX on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 00:05 (WAT). Toluca are 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Atlas sit 5th on 27 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Monterrey 2–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atlas's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Atlante FC 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Toluca 1–1 Atlas.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Toluca and 0.8 for Atlas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca 63%, draw 24%, Atlas 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Toluca 1–0 Atlas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca63%fair 1.59 · @1.44
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.80
Atlas13%fair 7.76 · @5.50
2.69Expected goals
1.92Toluca xG
0.77Atlas xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Toluca 1.9 – 0.8 Atlas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Toluca vs Atlas?
On our numbers Toluca have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atlas 13%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Atlas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Atlas?
Our predicted score is Toluca 1–0 Atlas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca vs Atlas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 00:05 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
