Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Necaxa to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNecaxa to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceNecaxa or draw ✗85% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.74
Necaxa vs Puebla preview and prediction
The match
Puebla travel to Estadio Victoria in the Liga MX on Saturday 12 September (02:00 WAT) to face Necaxa. Necaxa are 17th with 13 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Puebla sit 13th on 19 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Necaxa's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Tigres UANL 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Puebla's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Club America 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5. They average 1.7 scored and 2.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 March 2026, finished Puebla 0–0 Necaxa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Necaxa and 1.0 for Puebla. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Necaxa 60%, draw 25%, Puebla 15%.
Safer route: Necaxa or draw (85%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Necaxa to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Necaxa or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Necaxa 2–0 Puebla. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Necaxa60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.20
Puebla15%fair 6.54 · @3.25
3.00Expected goals
2.03Necaxa xG
0.97Puebla xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Necaxa 2.0 – 1.0 Puebla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Necaxa or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Necaxa vs Puebla?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Puebla 15%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Puebla?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Puebla?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 2–0 Puebla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Puebla?
Necaxa vs Puebla (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
