Toluca travel to Estadio Cuauhtémoc in the Liga MX on Wednesday 16 September (02:00 WAT) to face Puebla. Puebla are 13th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Puebla's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Necaxa 1–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Toluca's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Atlas 5–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.8 for Puebla and 2.2 for Toluca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Puebla 14%, draw 18%, Toluca 68%.
Safer route: Toluca or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Puebla 0–2 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Puebla14%fair 7.24 · @4.80
Draw18%fair 5.58 · @3.90
Toluca68%fair 1.46 · @1.50
3.00Expected goals
0.84Puebla xG
2.16Toluca xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Puebla 0.8 – 2.2 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
68%
1.46
1.50
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.59
–
Form
Puebla – last 6
WLWWLL
12 Sep
@ Necaxa
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Club America
0–2
L
23 Aug
vs Santos Laguna
3–2
W
18 Aug
@ CF Pachuca
3–2
W
13 Aug
@ San Diego
2–3
L
10 Aug
@ Austin
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
WWWWWW
13 Sep
vs Atlas
5–2
W
7 Sep
vs Monterrey
2–0
W
3 Sep
vs Leon
2–0
W
31 Aug
vs FC Juarez
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs Austin
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Club Queretaro
2–1
W
2.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Puebla and Toluca.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Puebla vs Toluca?
On our numbers Puebla have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Toluca 68%.
How many goals will there be in Puebla vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Puebla vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Puebla 0–2 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Puebla vs Toluca?
Puebla vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
