Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.52 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.52Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓65% · @1.52
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓84% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.34
Toluca vs Necaxa preview and prediction
The match
Necaxa travel to face Toluca in the Liga MX on Monday 3 August (02:10 WAT). Toluca are 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Necaxa sit 17th on 13 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Cruz Azul 1–3 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Necaxa's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Monterrey 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Necaxa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Necaxa 0–3 Toluca.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Toluca and 0.9 for Necaxa. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca 65%, draw 19%, Necaxa 16%.
Safer route: Toluca or draw (84%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.52. Predicted score: Toluca 2–0 Necaxa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca65%fair 1.54 · @1.52
Draw19%fair 5.35 · @4.35
Necaxa16%fair 6.11 · @5.50
3.02Expected goals
2.09Toluca xG
0.93Necaxa xG
59%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.1 – 0.9 Necaxa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.
Who will win Toluca vs Necaxa?
On our numbers Toluca have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Necaxa 16%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Necaxa?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Necaxa?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–0 Necaxa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Necaxa?
Toluca vs Necaxa (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 3 August 2026 at 02:10 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
