Value bet: Cruz Azul to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruz Azul to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.82
Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul preview and prediction
The match
Atletico San Luis host Cruz Azul in the Liga MX on Saturday 18 July, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Alfonso Lastras Ramirez. Atletico San Luis are 14th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Cruz Azul sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico San Luis's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Mineros de Zacatecas 4–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cruz Azul's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Monarcas 3–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Cruz Azul 3–0 Atletico San Luis.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Atletico San Luis and 1.8 for Cruz Azul. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico San Luis 21%, draw 20%, Cruz Azul 60%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Cruz Azul to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Atletico San Luis 1–1 Cruz Azul. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico San Luis21%fair 4.81 · @3.95
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.65
Cruz Azul60%fair 1.68 · @1.85
2.78Expected goals
0.95Atletico San Luis xG
1.83Cruz Azul xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–36%
0–06%
From our goals model: Atletico San Luis 1.0 – 1.8 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers Atletico San Luis have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Cruz Azul 60%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is Atletico San Luis 1–1 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul?
Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Alfonso Lastras Ramirez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
