Value bet: Necaxa to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNecaxa to win ✓58% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.09
Necaxa vs Atlante FC preview and prediction
The match
Necaxa host Atlante FC in the Liga MX on Friday 17 July, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Victoria. Necaxa are 17th with 13 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Atlante FC sit 16th on 14 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Necaxa's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Leon 0–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atlante FC's last 5: DDDLW Most recently they drew with Toluca 3–3 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for Necaxa and 1.0 for Atlante FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Necaxa 58%, draw 20%, Atlante FC 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Necaxa to win at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Necaxa 1–1 Atlante FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Necaxa58%fair 1.71 · @1.90
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.60
Atlante FC21%fair 4.71 · @3.75
2.89Expected goals
1.87Necaxa xG
1.02Atlante FC xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Necaxa 1.9 – 1.0 Atlante FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Necaxa to win✓
58%
1.71
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Half-time result
Necaxa ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Necaxa / FT Necaxa✗
36%
2.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.09
–
Form
Necaxa – last 6
DDWWLD
11 Jul
@ Leon
0–0
D
4 Jul
@ Atlas
0–0
D
1 Jul
@ Correcaminos Uat
6–3
W
20 Jun
vs Monarcas
1–0
W
27 Apr
@ Cruz Azul
1–4
L
23 Apr
vs Guadalajara Chivas
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atlante FC – last 6
DDDLWD
10 Jul
vs Toluca
3–3
D
4 Jul
vs Monterrey
1–1
D
2 Jul
@ New Mexico United
3–3
D
28 Jun
@ FC Juarez
0–2
L
24 Apr
vs Tepatitlán
2–0
W
18 Apr
vs CA La Paz
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Necaxa and Atlante FC.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Necaxa vs Atlante FC?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Atlante FC 21%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Atlante FC?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Atlante FC?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 1–1 Atlante FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Atlante FC?
Necaxa vs Atlante FC (Liga MX) kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
