Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLazio to win ✓63% · @1.40
Double chanceLazio or draw ✓82% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.01
Lazio vs Parma preview and prediction
The match
Lazio host Parma in the Serie A on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stadio Olimpico. Lazio are 1st with 29 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Parma sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lazio's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Juventus 3–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Parma's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Torino 0–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Lazio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Lazio and 0.8 for Parma. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lazio 63%, draw 19%, Parma 18%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 52% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lazio to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Lazio 1–0 Parma. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lazio63%fair 1.59 · @1.40
Draw19%fair 5.38 · @4.40
Parma18%fair 5.45 · @7.50
2.50Expected goals
1.74Lazio xG
0.76Parma xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Lazio 1.7 – 0.8 Parma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lazio to win✓
63%
1.59
1.40
Double chance
Lazio or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Lazio ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lazio / FT Lazio✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.01
–
Form
Lazio – last 6
WWDWDW
18 Oct
@ Juventus
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Monza
3–1
W
3 Oct
vs Juve Stabia
3–3
D
19 Sep
@ Venezia
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs AC Milan
2–2
D
7 Sep
@ Udinese
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Parma – last 6
LLWLDL
19 Oct
vs Torino
0–3
L
10 Oct
@ Inter
0–3
L
20 Sep
vs Genoa
2–1
W
14 Sep
@ Como
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Monza
1–1
D
1 Sep
vs Cremonese
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lazio and Parma.
Our pick is Lazio to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Lazio vs Parma?
On our numbers Lazio have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Parma 18%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Parma?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Parma?
Our predicted score is Lazio 1–0 Parma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lazio vs Parma?
Lazio vs Parma (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
