Serie A · Italy · Stadio Via del MareLecce vs Bologna prediction & analysis
Bologna to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lecce 0.8 – 1.6 Bologna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bologna shade it despite being away from home – 59% to win, against 21% for Lecce.
Lecce have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.0 per game. Bologna have 2 points from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. Lecce come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (0.8 for Lecce, 1.6 for Bologna). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (15%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (12%).
Our pick is Bologna to win at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.85 is better than our fair price of 1.70, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bologna to win ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.26 | 1.33 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Bologna / FT Bologna ✓ | 35% | 2.89 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 15% | 6.86 | – |
Form
Lecce – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sep | @ Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Aug | @ Palermo | 0–2 | L |
Bologna – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | @ Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Aug | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Brighton | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lecce and Bologna.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Inter | 11 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 11 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 |  Como | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Bologna | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Cagliari | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 |  Torino | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Atalanta | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Genoa | 11 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lecce vs Bologna?
Our pick is Bologna to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Lecce vs Bologna?
On our numbers Lecce have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Bologna 59%.
How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Bologna?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Lecce vs Bologna?
Lecce vs Bologna (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Via del Mare.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.