Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
1
Value bet: Venezia to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVenezia to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.70
Venezia vs Fiorentina preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Venezia take on Fiorentina on Friday 11 September, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Venezia are 19th with 6 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Fiorentina sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Venezia's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Frosinone 2–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Fiorentina's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Torino 1–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for Venezia and 1.5 for Fiorentina. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Venezia 40%, draw 24%, Fiorentina 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Venezia to win at 2.90 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Venezia 1–1 Fiorentina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Venezia40%fair 2.53 · @2.90
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.25
Fiorentina37%fair 2.74 · @2.30
3.17Expected goals
1.62Venezia xG
1.55Fiorentina xG
61%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Venezia 1.6 – 1.5 Fiorentina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Venezia to win✗
40%
2.53
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venezia / FT Venezia✗
24%
4.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.70
–
Form
Venezia – last 6
LLLLWD
6 Sep
@ Frosinone
2–3
L
2 Sep
@ Udinese
1–2
L
28 Aug
@ AC Milan
0–2
L
23 Aug
vs Lecce
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Modena
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Fiorentina – last 6
LLLWDD
5 Sep
vs Torino
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Frosinone
0–3
L
24 Aug
@ AS Roma
0–4
L
14 Aug
vs Benevento
4–1
W
6 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Real Madrid
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Venezia and Fiorentina.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Venezia vs Fiorentina?
On our numbers Venezia have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fiorentina 37%.
How many goals will there be in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Our predicted score is Venezia 1–1 Fiorentina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Venezia vs Fiorentina (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
