Serie A · Italy · Unipol DomusCagliari vs Lecce prediction & analysis
Cagliari or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Cagliari to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cagliari 1.5 – 0.5 Lecce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cagliari are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 16% for Lecce.
Cagliari have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Lecce have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.5 for Cagliari, 0.5 for Lecce). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (20%), 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (14%).
In their last 1 meeting, Cagliari have won 0, Lecce have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Cagliari or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Cagliari to win at 1.95 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cagliari to win ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Cagliari or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cagliari / FT Cagliari ✓ | 36% | 2.79 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 20% | 5.09 | – |
Form
Cagliari – last 6
| 3 Sep | vs Hellas Verona | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Inter | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Parma | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | vs Arezzo | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Nice | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Aug | @ Union Berlin | 2–2 | D |
Lecce – last 6
| 31 Aug | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Aug | @ Palermo | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | vs SS Monopoli | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs Istra 1961 | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Jul | vs FC Politehnica Timisoara | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 16 Feb 2026 | Cagliari v Lecce | 0–2 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Inter | 11 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 11 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 |  Como | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Bologna | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Cagliari | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 |  Torino | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Atalanta | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Genoa | 11 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our pick is Cagliari or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cagliari vs Lecce?
On our numbers Cagliari have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lecce 16%.
How many goals will there be in Cagliari vs Lecce?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Cagliari vs Lecce?
Cagliari vs Lecce (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Unipol Domus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.