Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 55% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAC Milan to win ✓66% · @1.37
Double chanceAC Milan or draw ✓84% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.40
AC Milan vs Venezia preview and prediction
The match
Venezia travel to San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in the Serie A on Friday 28 August (19:45 WAT) to face AC Milan. AC Milan are 4th with 24 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Venezia sit 19th on 6 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
AC Milan's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Torino 2–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Venezia's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Lecce 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for AC Milan and 0.7 for Venezia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AC Milan 66%, draw 18%, Venezia 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 55% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: AC Milan 2–0 Venezia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AC Milan66%fair 1.51 · @1.37
Draw18%fair 5.50 · @4.65
Venezia16%fair 6.43 · @8.10
2.64Expected goals
1.90AC Milan xG
0.74Venezia xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: AC Milan 1.9 – 0.7 Venezia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AC Milan to win✓
66%
1.51
1.37
Double chance
AC Milan or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.38
Half-time result
AC Milan ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.40
–
Form
AC Milan – last 6
WWLDDL
23 Aug
@ Torino
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Manchester United
4–2
W
8 Aug
@ Chelsea
0–3
L
5 Aug
vs Inter
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Celtic
2–2
D
24 May
vs Cagliari
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Venezia – last 6
LWDLWW
23 Aug
vs Lecce
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Modena
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ Saint Etienne
3–4
L
27 Jul
@ Galatasaray
3–0
W
23 Jul
vs Vis Pesaro
8–0
W
3.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AC Milan and Venezia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AC Milan vs Venezia?
On our numbers AC Milan have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Venezia 16%.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Venezia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Venezia?
Our predicted score is AC Milan 2–0 Venezia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is AC Milan vs Venezia?
AC Milan vs Venezia (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
