Primera A · Colombia · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.20
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.6 – 1.2 Once Caldas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Atletico Nacional hold the edge on home soil with a 51% chance of winning, against 32% for Once Caldas.
Atletico Nacional have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Once Caldas have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.6 for Atletico Nacional, 1.2 for Once Caldas). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Atletico Nacional have won 0, Once Caldas have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.29.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico Nacional to win | 51% | 1.95 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 83% | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 54% | 1.86 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 41% | 2.44 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional | 29% | 3.50 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 10% | 10.19 | – |
Form
Atletico Nacional – last 6
| 8 Nov | vs Deportivo Pereira | 4–3 | W |
| 3 Nov | @ Bucaramanga | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Oct | vs Santa Fe | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Oct | vs Independiente Medellin | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Oct | vs Deportivo Pasto | 3–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | @ Cucuta | 0–1 | L |
Once Caldas – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Águilas Doradas | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Nov | @ Santa Fe | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Oct | vs Alianza Valledupar | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Deportivo Pereira | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Oct | @ Millonarios | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Independiente Medellin | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 2 May 2026 | Once Caldas v Atletico Nacional | 1–0 |
More Primera A predictions
Águilas Doradas
Independiente Medellin
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
73%@1.30
Cucuta
Jaguares
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
74%@1.26
Deportivo Cali
Deportes Tolima
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
67%@1.35
Internacional de Bogota
Santa Fe
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
69%@1.35
Llaneros
Chico
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
74%@1.30
Millonarios
Alianza Valledupar
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
76%@1.22
Deportivo Pereira
America de Cali
X2America de Cali or draw
85%@1.20
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Once Caldas 32%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.