Primera A · Colombia

Santa Fe

LLLWW
5–0
FT

Deportivo Pasto

LWLLD

Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto prediction & analysis

73%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.33Odds
U3.5

Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.90 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultSanta Fe to win ✓74% · @1.07
Double chanceSanta Fe or draw ✓94% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗15% · fair 6.55

Win chances

Santa Fe74%fair 1.35 · @1.07
Draw19%fair 5.13 · @8.75
Deportivo Pasto6%fair 15.60 · @24.00
2.79Expected goals
2.22Santa Fe xG
0.56Deportivo Pasto xG
50%Both score
56%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–015%
1–014%
3–011%
2–19%
1–18%
3–16%

From our goals model: Santa Fe 2.2 – 0.6 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Santa Fe are clear favourites at home with a 74% chance of winning, against 6% for Deportivo Pasto.

Santa Fe have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Deportivo Pasto have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.

We expect around 2.8 goals (2.2 for Santa Fe, 0.6 for Deportivo Pasto). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (15%), 1–0 (14%), 3–0 (11%).

In their last 1 meeting, Santa Fe have won 1, Deportivo Pasto have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Under 3.5 goals at 1.90 is our value angle (59% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSanta Fe to win ✓74%1.351.07
Double chanceSanta Fe or draw ✓94%1.071.01
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗50%2.001.93
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73%1.361.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓56%1.801.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗59%1.701.90 ▲
Half-time resultSanta Fe ahead at half-time ✓54%1.86–
Half-time / full-timeHT Santa Fe / FT Santa Fe ✓51%1.97–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗15%6.55–

Form

Santa Fe – last 6

LLLWWL
5 Nov@ Cucuta0–1L
2 Novvs Once Caldas0–2L
30 Oct@ Atletico Nacional0–2L
27 Octvs Bucaramanga2–1W
22 Octvs Jaguares2–1W
19 Oct@ Llaneros0–1L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Deportivo Pasto – last 6

LWLLDL
31 Oct@ Bucaramanga1–2L
26 Oct@ Deportes Tolima1–0W
23 Oct@ Atletico Nacional0–3L
20 Octvs Alianza Valledupar0–1L
4 Octvs Fortaleza FC0–0D
26 Sep@ Chico0–3L
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

24 Apr 2026Deportivo Pasto v Santa Fe1–2

More Primera A predictions

FT Atletico Nacional4 Deportivo Pereira3 76159 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.61 ✗ FT America de Cali0 Deportivo Cali0 462331 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.34 ✗ FT Jaguares0 Bucaramanga4 241858 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

On our numbers Santa Fe have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Deportivo Pasto 6%.

How many goals will there be in Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

When is Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.