Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓69% · @1.25
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓91% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.20
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗14% · fair 6.97
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Nacional host Deportivo Pasto in the Primera A on Friday 23 October, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Atletico Nacional are 1st with 39 points from 18 games (top of the table), while Deportivo Pasto sit 18th on 15 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Nacional's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Cucuta 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Deportivo Pasto's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Alianza Valledupar 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Nacional arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 March 2026, finished Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico Nacional.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Atletico Nacional and 0.6 for Deportivo Pasto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Nacional 69%, draw 22%, Deportivo Pasto 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.20.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 50% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Nacional to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Pasto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Nacional69%fair 1.45 · @1.25
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @5.00
Deportivo Pasto9%fair 10.96 · @12.00
2.67Expected goals
2.04Atletico Nacional xG
0.63Deportivo Pasto xG
50%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 2.0 – 0.6 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo Pasto 9%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
