Primera A · Colombia · Olímpico Pascual GuerreroAmerica de Cali vs Independiente Medellin prediction & analysis
America de Cali or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: America de Cali to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: America de Cali 1.8 – 0.7 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
America de Cali are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 13% for Independiente Medellin.
America de Cali have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 per game. Independiente Medellin have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded. America de Cali come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.8 for America de Cali, 0.7 for Independiente Medellin). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, America de Cali have won 0, Independiente Medellin have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is America de Cali or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, America de Cali to win at 1.80 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | America de Cali to win ✗ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | America de Cali or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.87 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Half-time result | America de Cali ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT America de Cali / FT America de Cali ✗ | 41% | 2.42 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.80 | – |
Form
America de Cali – last 6
| 5 Oct | @ Llaneros | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Sep | vs Águilas Doradas | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | @ Deportes Tolima | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Deportivo Pasto | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Sep | vs Deportivo Pereira | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Sep | vs Alianza Valledupar | 3–0 | W |
Independiente Medellin – last 6
| 6 Oct | vs Santa Fe | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Sep | vs Millonarios | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Junior | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Jaguares | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Bucaramanga | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Chico | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 31 Mar 2026 | Independiente Medellin v America de Cali | 2–1 |
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Nacional | 19 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  Junior | 19 | +7 | 35 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Pasto | 19 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | +10 | 33 |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 |  Deportes Tolima | 19 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 |  Santa Fe | 19 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 |  Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 19 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 |  Independiente Medellin | 19 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 |  Bucaramanga | 19 | +6 | 23 |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 19 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 19 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 |  Chico | 19 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cucuta | 19 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | -17 | 10 |
More Primera A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is America de Cali or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers America de Cali have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independiente Medellin 13%.
How many goals will there be in America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 02:15 (West Africa Time) at Olímpico Pascual Guerrero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.