Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe prediction & analysis
61%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Santa Fe to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Independiente Medellin take on Santa Fe on Tuesday 6 October, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí. Independiente Medellin are 6th with 29 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Santa Fe sit 5th on 31 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Independiente Medellin's last 5: DLWDL Most recently they drew with Millonarios 2–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Santa Fe's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Deportivo Pereira 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 March 2026, finished Santa Fe 2–1 Independiente Medellin.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Independiente Medellin and 1.3 for Santa Fe. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente Medellin 39%, draw 24%, Santa Fe 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Santa Fe to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Santa Fe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente Medellin39%fair 2.57 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Santa Fe37%fair 2.72 · @3.10
2.70Expected goals
1.37Independiente Medellin xG
1.33Santa Fe xG
61%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.4 – 1.3 Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✗
39%
2.57
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santa Fe 37%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–1 Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe (Primera A) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
