Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓90% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗14% · fair 7.07
Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares preview and prediction
The match
Jaguares travel to Estadio Atanasio Girardot in the Primera A on Wednesday 23 September (00:00 WAT) to face Independiente Medellin. Independiente Medellin are 6th with 29 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Jaguares sit 19th on 13 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Independiente Medellin's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Bucaramanga 2–2 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Jaguares's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with Fortaleza FC 2–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Independiente Medellin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 March 2026, finished Jaguares 1–2 Independiente Medellin.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.2 for Independiente Medellin and 0.6 for Jaguares. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Independiente Medellin to win – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Independiente Medellin 2–0 Jaguares. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente Medellin73%fair 1.37 · @1.30
Draw17%fair 5.82 · @4.80
Jaguares10%fair 9.92 · @9.00
2.80Expected goals
2.16Independiente Medellin xG
0.64Jaguares xG
54%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–013%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 2.2 – 0.6 Jaguares expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
Our pick is Independiente Medellin to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Jaguares 10%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 2–0 Jaguares, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?
Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares (Primera A) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
