Chico vs Independiente Medellin prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Independiente Medellin or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 1.83 – our chance 63% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✗63% · @1.83
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✗84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.49
Chico vs Independiente Medellin preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Chico take on Independiente Medellin on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 00:10 (WAT) at Estadio La Independencia. Chico are 15th with 19 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Independiente Medellin sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Chico's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Once Caldas 2–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Independiente Medellin's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Deportivo Pasto 4–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Independiente Medellin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 April 2026, finished Independiente Medellin 2–0 Chico.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Chico and 1.8 for Independiente Medellin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 49%.
Safer route: Independiente Medellin or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Independiente Medellin to win at 1.83 – 63% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Independiente Medellin or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Chico 0–1 Independiente Medellin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chico16%fair 6.11 · @4.20
Draw21%fair 4.88 · @3.30
Independiente Medellin63%fair 1.58 · @1.83
2.62Expected goals
0.79Chico xG
1.83Independiente Medellin xG
49%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: Chico 0.8 – 1.8 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✗
63%
1.58
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✗
84%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
What is the prediction for Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Independiente Medellin or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Chico have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Independiente Medellin 63%.
How many goals will there be in Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Chico 0–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
Chico vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 00:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Independencia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
