Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
Atletico Nacional to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✗62% · @1.62
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.43
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima travel to Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí in the Primera A on Friday 9 October (00:05 WAT) to face Atletico Nacional. Atletico Nacional are 1st with 39 points from 18 games (top of the table), while Deportes Tolima sit 9th on 26 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Nacional's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Junior 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Deportes Tolima's last 5: DDDLL Most recently they drew with Chico 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Atletico Nacional arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima. Across their last 3 meetings Atletico Nacional have won 2, Deportes Tolima 1, with 0 draws and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Atletico Nacional and 0.8 for Deportes Tolima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Nacional 62%, draw 21%, Deportes Tolima 17%.
Safer route: Atletico Nacional or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Nacional to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportes Tolima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Nacional62%fair 1.62 · @1.62
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.60
Deportes Tolima17%fair 5.93 · @5.00
2.59Expected goals
1.79Atletico Nacional xG
0.80Deportes Tolima xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.8 – 0.8 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Deportes Tolima 17%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 00:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
