Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Atletico Nacional or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.68
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Valledupar host Atletico Nacional in the Primera A on Sunday 30 August, with kick-off at 02:30 (WAT) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau. Alianza Valledupar are 16th with 18 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico Nacional sit 1st on 39 points (top of the table). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Alianza Valledupar's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Cucuta 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Atletico Nacional's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Deportivo Cali 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Nacional arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Atletico Nacional 3–0 Alianza Valledupar.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Alianza Valledupar and 1.7 for Atletico Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alianza Valledupar 16%, draw 22%, Atletico Nacional 62%.
Safer route: Atletico Nacional or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Atletico Nacional to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Nacional or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Atletico Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Valledupar16%fair 6.21 · @4.00
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
Atletico Nacional62%fair 1.62 · @1.91
2.47Expected goals
0.74Alianza Valledupar xG
1.73Atletico Nacional xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Alianza Valledupar 0.7 – 1.7 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Alianza Valledupar have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Nacional 62%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
