Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 1.76 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✓64% · @1.76
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.50
Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Pereira host Independiente Medellin in the Primera A on Friday 4 September, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Santiago de las Atalayas. Deportivo Pereira are 17th with 17 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Independiente Medellin sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportivo Pereira's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Deportivo Pasto 2–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente Medellin's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Llaneros 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Independiente Medellin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 February 2026, finished Independiente Medellin 1–1 Deportivo Pereira.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Deportivo Pereira and 1.8 for Independiente Medellin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Safer route: Independiente Medellin or draw (83%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Independiente Medellin to win at 1.76 – 64% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Independiente Medellin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Pereira17%fair 5.85 · @4.55
Draw19%fair 5.18 · @3.55
Independiente Medellin64%fair 1.57 · @1.76
2.56Expected goals
0.76Deportivo Pereira xG
1.79Independiente Medellin xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Deportivo Pereira 0.8 – 1.8 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
64%
1.57
1.76 ▲
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Deportivo Pereira have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Independiente Medellin 64%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?
Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Santiago de las Atalayas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
