Value bet: Real Cartagena to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion Magdalena to win ✗38% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.65
Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena preview and prediction
The match
Union Magdalena host Real Cartagena in the Primera B on Wednesday 30 September, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Sierra Nevada. Union Magdalena are 3rd with 4 points from 4 games (in the top four), while Real Cartagena sit 3rd on 4 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Union Magdalena's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Santa Fe 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Real Cartagena's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Envigado 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Cartagena arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 May 2026, finished Union Magdalena 3–0 Real Cartagena. Across their last 3 meetings Union Magdalena have won 1, Real Cartagena 2, with 0 draws and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Union Magdalena and 1.2 for Real Cartagena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union Magdalena 38%, draw 25%, Real Cartagena 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Real Cartagena to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Union Magdalena 1–1 Real Cartagena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union Magdalena38%fair 2.62 · @2.25
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.90
Real Cartagena36%fair 2.75 · @3.00
2.51Expected goals
1.27Union Magdalena xG
1.24Real Cartagena xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Union Magdalena 1.3 – 1.2 Real Cartagena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
On our numbers Union Magdalena have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Real Cartagena 36%.
How many goals will there be in Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
Our predicted score is Union Magdalena 1–1 Real Cartagena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena (Primera B) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Sierra Nevada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
