Value bet: Popayan to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPopayan to win ✓39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.35
Leones FC vs Popayan preview and prediction
The match
Leones FC host Popayan in the Primera B on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 21:30 (WAT) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui. Leones FC are 16th with 14 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Popayan sit 2nd on 7 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Leones FC's last 5: DLLLD Most recently they drew with Envigado 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Popayan's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Real Santander 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Leones FC and 1.2 for Popayan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones FC 35%, draw 26%, Popayan 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Popayan to win at 3.10 – 39% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.79, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Leones FC 1–1 Popayan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones FC35%fair 2.84 · @2.20
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.75
Popayan39%fair 2.57 · @3.10
2.29Expected goals
1.11Leones FC xG
1.18Popayan xG
56%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Leones FC 1.1 – 1.2 Popayan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Popayan to win✓
39%
2.57
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Popayan / FT Popayan✓
21%
4.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.35
–
Form
Leones FC – last 6
DLLLDW
12 Sep
@ Envigado
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Depor FC
0–3
L
28 Aug
@ Ind. Yumbo
0–1
L
24 Aug
vs Real Cartagena
1–6
L
20 Aug
vs Real Cundinamarca
1–1
D
6 Aug
@ Bogota FC
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Popayan – last 6
WDLLLD
13 Sep
vs Real Santander
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Envigado
2–2
D
1 Sep
@ Barranquilla
1–2
L
25 Aug
vs Bogota FC
1–2
L
6 Aug
@ Real Soacha
1–3
L
1 Aug
vs Tigres FC
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones FC and Popayan.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Leones FC vs Popayan?
On our numbers Leones FC have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Popayan 39%.
How many goals will there be in Leones FC vs Popayan?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones FC vs Popayan?
Our predicted score is Leones FC 1–1 Popayan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Leones FC vs Popayan?
Leones FC vs Popayan (Primera B) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
