Primera División · Peru · Estadio Alberto GallardoSporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sporting Cristal 1.4 – 1.4 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Sporting Cristal have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. Alianza Lima have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.4 for Sporting Cristal, 1.4 for Alianza Lima). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Sporting Cristal have won 0, Alianza Lima have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is better than our fair price of 1.61, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sporting Cristal to win ✓ | 39% | 2.59 | 2.45 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.87 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sporting Cristal / FT Sporting Cristal ✗ | 22% | 4.49 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 9% | 11.76 | – |
Form
Sporting Cristal – last 6
| 24 Oct | @ Cusco | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Comerciantes Unidos | 4–2 | W |
| 1 Oct | vs ADT | 5–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ ADT | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Atletico Grau | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ UCV Moquegua | 2–1 | W |
Alianza Lima – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ UCV Moquegua | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Atletico Grau | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | @ Cusco | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Oct | vs Palestino | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs ADT | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Universitario | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 10 May 2026 | Alianza Lima v Sporting Cristal | 1–1 |
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 6 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +14 | 50 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -11 | 34 |
| 16 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 19 |
More Primera División predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers Sporting Cristal have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Lima 37%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alberto Gallardo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.